Nearly one in Four U.S. Homes Face Severe or Extreme Wind, Flood or Wildfire Risk, and Higher Costs Are Already Showing Up in HOA Fees and Insurance

AUSTIN, Texas, July 23, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Home shoppers in some of the country's priciest markets continue to consider high-risk homes over lower-risk alternatives nearby, according to a Realtor.com^® report released today. Some 23.1% of U.S. homes, representing $11.2 trillion in value, face severe or extreme risk from wind, flood or wildfire, and buyer demand in some of the most exposed markets remains just as strong, or stronger, than in lower-risk areas nearby.

The financial fallout is no longer waiting on the next disaster to show up. Homeowners in high-risk areas already pay a median $192 a month in HOA fees, 53.6% more than homeowners in lower-risk areas. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) active contracts fell 4.5% between May 2025 and May 2026, and serious mortgage delinquency rates in Louisiana and Mississippi have run more than double the national average.

"Price is still the biggest motivator for a lot of home shoppers, even in places where climate risk is well known," said Jiayi Xu, Economist at Realtor.com^®. "But that doesn't mean the risk disappears. It shows up later, in insurance premiums, HOA fees and financing, often after the sale is already done."

Affordability and Location Outweigh Climate Risk

In several of California's most expensive counties, climate risk comes with a discount, and some buyers are choosing to take it. In Santa Clara County, homes facing severe or extreme risk are priced at just 78% the price of homes without severe or extreme risk per square foot, and draw 48% more views per listing. Los Angeles County shows a similar pattern, with severe or extreme risk homes priced at 75% of those without severe or extreme risk and drawing 23% more views. Even the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires only interrupted that pattern briefly: the views ratio between severe or extreme and lower-risk homes dropped from 1.21 in December 2024 to 1.11 the following month, then rebounded to 1.31 by March.

In other markets, buyers of severe or extreme risk homes pay a premium instead of a discount. In Anne Arundel County, Md., severe or extreme risk homes are priced 44% more than the price per square foot of homes without severe or extreme risk, driven by Chesapeake Bay waterfront access. In Llano County, Texas, severe or extreme risk homes are priced two times non-severe or extreme risk homes, reflecting demand for Hill Country ranches and river retreats.

The Costs Are Already Showing Up

The median monthly HOA fee for a home facing severe or extreme risk is $192, compared with $125 for lower-risk homes, a gap of 53.6%. The difference is widest in Delaware, South Carolina and Oregon at the state level, and in Portland, Ore.; Washington, D.C.; and Seattle at the metro level.

States Where Climate Risk Adds the Most to HOA Costs

Flood coverage is also becoming harder to hold onto. Active NFIP policies fell from 3.62 million to 3.45 million between May 2025 and May 2026, with Texas seeing the largest drop at 7.8%. The decline follows the rollout of the NFIP's Risk Rating 2.0 pricing model, which ties premiums more closely to a property's individual flood risk. Beyond Texas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Mississippi and Alabama each saw active policy counts drop more than 6%. Median annual premiums are also climbing, projected to nearly double over time, from $689 in December 2022 to $1,288.

Mortgage performance data shows where the pressure eventually surfaces. Louisiana and Mississippi have run persistently above the national average in serious mortgage delinquency, reaching 1.7% and 1.4% respectively by September 2025, compared with a national average of 0.8%. Florida and Texas started 2023 near the national average and have since climbed above 1.0%, reflecting both direct storm damage and the added strain of rising insurance costs.

"Having the full financial picture, including future insurance costs and coverage availability, matters just as much as the purchase price," said Xu. "There's nothing wrong with choosing a high-risk area for affordability or lifestyle, as long as it's an informed choice."

Methodology

Climate risk classifications in this report are based on the most current First Street estimates. Due to methodology updates from First Street, these figures are not directly comparable to those reported in Realtor.com 2025 Climate Risk Report.

Climate risk factor: Severe and extreme risk refers to homes with a First Street Fire Factor^®, Flood Factor^®, and Wind Factor™ of 7 or higher. Each Factor's score boundaries were overlaid on top Realtor.com^® single-family, condo, townhome, row home, and co-op property data to assign a score to each home, which was matched to the most recent AVM estimates from Realtor.com^® data providers to derive values.

HOA fee: This report aggregates weekly snapshots of all for-sale listings in the United States on Realtor.com^® between June 2025 and May 2026. Listings are considered to be subject to an HOA if they have a monthly HOA fee greater than zero dollars published on them. Median monthly HOA dues calculations for a given geography or listing segment include only nonzero HOA dues (i.e., listings without HOA dues are not included as zeros).

Mortgage delinquency rate is obtained from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. 

Online shopping data: The online shopping data in this report measures traffic to listing detail pages between June 2025 and May 2026. Climate risk scores appear on those detail pages.

About Realtor.com^®
For over 30 years, Realtor.com^® has connected buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 real estate site REALTOR® agents recommend, Realtor.com^® delivers consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Emily Do, press@realtor.com

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SOURCE Realtor.com